mercredi, 25 juillet 2012
Risque systémique - Dernière lettre de Graham Summers & assortie interview Olivier Demarche 10 juillet sur la récession
it’s clear now that the world is entering a period of wealth destruction. Europe is in the midst of a sovereign debt crisis. History tells us that this will entail more than one sovereign nation going belly-up. Indeed, I believe that we’ll see ALL of the PIIGS as well as France stage sovereign defaults in the coming months.
After that will come Japan, then finally the US. By the time the smoke clears, we will have seen systemic collapse.
This will mean:
1) Many major banks disappearing, as well as numerous potentially lengthy bank holidays (think Argentina in 2001)
2) Multiple sovereign defaults as well as broad economic contractions and their commensurate unemployment/ civil unrest/ erasure of retirement accounts/ pensions (this process has already begun in some US municipals, e.g. San Bernandino and Stockton California as well as Harrisburg Pennsylvania).
3) Possibly new currencies being introduced or new denominations of currencies (say one new unit being worth 1,000 of the old one)
4) Massive wealth destruction to the tune of tens of trillions of Dollars (think MF Global i.e. the money is gone… only systemically… in fact we just had another such instance with PF)
5) A global contraction that will result in new political/ power structures being implemented as well as the breakup of various countries/ unions.
6) Very serious trade wars to begin (see Obama’s recent attack on China) and very possibly a real war.
If the above make you frightened, you’re not alone. As I’ve dug deeper and deeper into the inner workings of the global financial system over the past months, the information I’ve come across has only gotten worse. I’ve been holding off writing all of this because up until roughly April/May it seemed possible that the world might veer towards another outcome.
I no longer view this to be the case. I am almost certain that what I’ve written above will come to pass. I know that much of what I’ve written to you in the past could be labeled as “gloom and doom.” However, I want you to know that I do not use the words “systemic collapse” lightly. Indeed, I wish I wasn’t mentioning them now, but I’d be doing you a disservice not to bring them up because we’re well on our way towards it.
Interview de Olivier Delamarche